IATA issued a press release yesterday with new estimates related to air passenger traffic. This international organization is expecting that the figures from 2019. will not be reached again until 2023.
IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios. In the baseline scenario, for 2021. they expect global passenger demand to be 24% below 2019 levels.
In the second, pessimistic scenario, organization is expecting 34% lower global passenger demand in 2021. in comparation with 2019.
The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets. An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020. found that 58% are somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys.
Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometers will only recover to 2019. levels by 2022. International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019. levels in 2024, but 69% of recent travelers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine period.